Beforehand it foresaw 755,000 items; now CIMB Securities has revised its 2025 whole trade quantity (TIV) forecast barely upwards to 760,000 items, Bernama reviews. For the document, RHB Funding Financial institution predicts 730,000, Maybank Funding Financial institution Analysis 750,000, the Malaysian Automotive Affiliation 780,000 and Kenanga Funding Financial institution 805,000.
Seemingly no point out was product of the postponement of OMV/402, which may make locally-assembled (CKD) automobiles price 10-30% extra, to January 2026, however CIMB Securities mentioned in immediately’s analysis notice that its newest forecast is based totally on potential headwinds just like the anticipated mid-year begin of focused RON 95 petrol subsidies.
“Nevertheless, we anticipate resilient demand inside the sub-RM100,000 section, which stays dominated by nationwide manufacturers and choose entry-level fashions from Japanese marques,” it mentioned, including that mentioned section made up at the very least 75% of TIV in 2024, with nationwide manufacturers taking on 80% of the section, and Japanese and Chinese language makes taking the remaining, based mostly on its estimations.
“We count on this demand to stay strong in 2025, supported by first-time automobile consumers, the December 2024 civil servants’ wage hike, and an accommodative rate of interest setting maintained by Financial institution Negara Malaysia,” it mentioned, including that it additionally forecasts a comparatively steady in a single day coverage price (OPR) in 2025, which might be part of forces with the federal government’s plans to retain gas subsidies for 85% of RON 95 customers to keep up affordability within the mass-market section.
“Because of this, we count on nationwide manufacturers to keep up their dominance, capturing a projected 64.5% market share, in contrast with 35.5% for non-national manufacturers in 2025,” it mentioned, additionally mentioning a subdued development outlook amidst heightening competitors from Chinese language manufacturers.
Key catalysts are the strengthening of the ringgit in opposition to the US greenback and Japanese yen, a discount in rates of interest and beneficial authorities insurance policies aimed toward reviving home demand, CIMB Securities mentioned, including that Sime Darby stays a high sector choose owing to its earnings-accretive acquisition of UMW Holdings, rising publicity to Australia’s mining sector, and potential monetisation of non-core and land financial institution belongings.
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