The federal government’s goal to mix 20% ethanol in petrol by Ethanol Provide 12 months (ESY) 2025 would require extra sugarcane utilisation, a report mentioned on Monday. That is additionally seemingly to enhance sugar stock degree and money flows of millers, it added.
An ESY runs from November to October.
India’s goal to mix 20% ethanol in petrol by ESY 2025 — or 990 crore litres yearly — would require efficient utilisation of each grain and sugarcane feedstock to extend its provide, Crisil Scores mentioned in a report.
The annual ethanol manufacturing from grains is anticipated to see a big improve to 600 crore litre by the following season (this season’s manufacturing estimate is 380 crore litre), it said.
The stability should be produced by processing ethanol from sugarcane, which is viable given the substantial capability in place, it mentioned.
This, in flip, may also help optimise the sugar stock, notably contemplating the excessive carry-over inventory anticipated on the finish of the present season owing to the federal government restriction on diversion for ethanol manufacturing and exports, Crisil Scores mentioned.
Mixing ethanol will assist cut back India’s dependence on crude oil imports. The ethanol mixing fee has steadily risen 200-300 foundation factors every season since ESY 2021, mentioned the report.
Whereas, the grain utilisation for producing ethanol will not be managed, the federal government determines the quantum of sugarcane utilisation based mostly on its estimation of demand-supply stability of sugar for the yr forward, it mentioned.
Crisil Scores report mentioned final yr’s erratic rainfall is anticipated to have impacted sugarcane manufacturing this yr.
Consequently, ethanol manufacturing from the sugarcane route is anticipated to be restricted to 250 crore litres (equal to 2.5 million tonnes of sugar) this season, it added.
“Ethanol mixing might nonetheless enhance to 14% in ESY 2024 as extraction from grains has considerably risen as a result of 40% capability growth. That can compensate for the diminished output from sugarcane,” it mentioned.
“Nevertheless, to succeed in the 20% mixing goal by ESY 2025, allocating sugarcane required to provide 4 million tonnes of sugar could be thought of for ethanol manufacturing, much like the season 2023,” Crisil Scores Director Poonam Upadhyay famous.
In keeping with the report, in season 2025, gross sugar manufacturing is anticipated to be 33.5 million tonnes, with sugar consumption at 29.5 million tonnes.
Furthermore, sugar inventories are projected to be wholesome by the tip of this season, it added.
Therefore, permitting sugarcane — equal to the amount required to provide 4 million tonnes of sugar — for ethanol provide (390 crore litres) could be thought of, whereas the bigger remaining share can be sourced from grain-based routes.
“Larger sugarcane utilization for ethanol manufacturing will even assist optimise sugar stock, which is estimated to rise to about 4 months of consumption (8 million tonne) by the tip of this season. Apart from, it will probably positively influence the money flows of sugar mills and assist them pay cane dues to farmers on time,” Crisil Scores Affiliate Director Anil Extra said.
Nevertheless, the coverage on the amount of sugarcane allowed subsequent season and availability and costs of grain-based feedstock must be monitored, the report added.
