Zero-emission powertrain applied sciences are the long-term answer however fleets should develop a portfolio of measures with extra speedy affect. By Walter Rentzsch and Wilfried Aulbur
The highway freight transportation sector accounts for 7% of worldwide CO2 emissions, in line with the Worldwide Vitality Company (IEA), with the US, Europe, China and India accounting for over half of those emissions. Whereas medium and heavy responsibility vehicles characterize solely 1 / 4 of the full highway transport fleet, with the bulk being gentle business automobiles, they’re answerable for about 50% of the section’s CO2 emissions. Within the IEA’s Internet Zero Emissions by 2050 Situation, heavy responsibility truck emissions would wish to say no 7% from the present state by 2030. Whereas this initially appears cheap, the quantity should be examined with respect to freight quantity. Regardless of revisions to estimates because of the COVID-19 pandemic, highway freight continues to be projected to develop by 20-40% till the top of the last decade. To account for this, heavy responsibility truck emission depth on a per-ton mile foundation should see a 30% discount by 2030 to place us on a path in the direction of a 1.5 levels Celsius state of affairs.
Regulation continues to be the primary driver
Decarbonisation drivers of the transportation section fall into two classes: regulatory or coverage push and market pull by buyer demand. Whereas these driving forces differ regionally and are shifting over time, regulation is, typically, the primary issue right this moment. In Europe, GHG emissions within the heavy responsibility and, sooner or later, medium responsibility segments are regulated; OEMs should prioritise and drive the transition towards ZEV applied sciences or face the specter of government-issued penalties. The US market has begun a shift towards elevated regulatory strain lately, as a number of states have adopted the Superior Clear Vehicles (ACT) regulation, following within the footsteps of California laws. The ACT at present imposes ZEV gross sales targets on OEMs, however extra laws concentrating on fleets is underneath dialogue.
Whereas medium and heavy responsibility vehicles characterize solely 1 / 4 of the full highway transport fleet…they’re answerable for about 50% of the section’s CO2 emissions
On the similar time, the market pull facet should be intently examined. All the top-ten for-hire and personal fleets within the US have dedicated to sustainability targets or the implementation of measures, pushed by rising strain from shareholders. Although many fleets are making such commitments, there’s nonetheless hesitancy from shippers to pay for decarbonised transport. Consequently, the present market faces considerably of a impasse. Many fleets are investing in trials for zero-emission applied sciences like BEV or gas cells to find out who’s keen to place these applied sciences into motion and what use instances or routes they’re appropriate for. Nonetheless, the required investments into automobiles and infrastructure are nonetheless too excessive for carriers to drive the transition singlehandedly—there should be clear demand and willingness to pay from shippers.
Different powertrains will play a crucial position within the long-term
TCO parity between diesel and BEV is predicted by the center of the last decade, relying on the use case; shorter vary, return-to-base functions would be the first to turn into electrified. As electrical energy costs differ considerably by area, and even between adjoining utility networks, the rollout will even be completely different by space. Gas-cell expertise is predicted to turn into TCO-positive throughout the second half of the last decade, creating a possibility to decarbonise long-haul transport the place fast-fuelling is a profit and BEV charging imposes uptime penalties.
As soon as TCO parity has been achieved, market development is predicted to speed up. Zero-emission applied sciences are prone to account for a major share of recent heavy responsibility vehicles offered in 2030: 30-40% in EU, 15-25% in North America, and 15-20% in China. With new gross sales representing roughly 10% of the general heavy responsibility vehicles in operation, build-up of a zero-emission automobile parc will take time. In North America, lower than 10% of the heavy responsibility truck parc shall be zero-emission in 2030. Numbers in Europe shall be increased because of the already-strong regulatory push, however they’re nonetheless prone to be beneath 20%.
To grasp these gross sales penetration charges, all market members, particularly fleets, gas suppliers, infrastructure gamers and OEMs, should work collectively in an ecosystem-based strategy to develop the market and deal with the challenges of expertise prices, infrastructure availability and gas prices (within the case of hydrogen). It additionally signifies that OEMs can not quit inner combustion engines simply but—a minimal funding will nonetheless be required from them.
Fleets additionally produce other measures at their disposal that may be applied right this moment
Whereas the large-scale deployment of ZEV applied sciences is a sizeable process that fleets should start to work on right this moment, its affect on GHG emission ranges will solely turn into seen within the long-term, as soon as a extra significant zero-emission truck parc has been developed. Nonetheless, fleets at present produce other non-powertrain-related measures at their disposal to assist scale back GHG emissions. One of the vital impactful measures is the conversion from highway to rail intermodal transport, as intermodal is greater than twice as fuel-efficient than highway transport.
OEMs can not quit inner combustion engines simply but—a minimal funding will nonetheless be required from them
One other measure that may be applied right this moment is the conversion to AMTs. Whereas the expertise is already prevalent within the European market, many US heavy responsibility vehicles have but to undertake it. Fleets are reporting 1-3% enhancements in gas effectivity when switching from handbook transmissions to AMT. Different potential measures the place telematics and knowledge analytics may help are the discount of each empty miles and automobile idling occasions.
Decarbonising highway freight requires dedication from all stakeholders and leveraging a number of measures
Whereas decarbonising the highway freight section to satisfy Paris Settlement targets looks as if a frightening process, all gamers within the business are rising participation and involvement. Zero-emission powertrain applied sciences are clearly the trail ahead, however fleets should develop a portfolio of measures that has extra speedy affect. One key driver to hurry up the decarbonisation transition is dedication from shippers. Making zero-emission transport a buying requirement, and the next willingness to pay for it, can be a possible game-changer. Till TCO parity is inside attain, regulatory push will nonetheless be a requirement.
In regards to the authors: Walter Rentzsch is Senior Challenge Supervisor and Wilfried Aulbur is a Senior Parter at Roland Berger Technique Consultants
