Main market segments noticed blended developments for seasonally adjusted costs yr over yr in February.
Wholesale used-vehicle costs (on a mixture, mileage, and seasonally adjusted foundation) had been decrease in February in comparison with January, based on the newest numbers from Cox Automotive.
The Manheim Used Car Worth Index (MUVVI) decreased to 204.1, reflecting a 0.1% enhance from a yr in the past. The seasonal adjustment drove the month-to-month transfer, as non-seasonally adjusted values rose. The non-adjusted worth in February elevated by 1.4% in comparison with January, transferring the unadjusted common worth up 0.8% yr over yr.
“With grey days and winter storms, it’s not unusual to see some volatility in wholesale developments relative to long-term run charges in February, and that’s what we skilled over the course of the final 4 weeks,” mentioned Jeremy Robb, senior director of financial and trade insights at Cox Automotive, in a March 7 information launch. “Tax refund season drives the ‘spring bounce’ in wholesale markets, and it seems to have began off a bit slower this yr earlier than ramping up on the finish of February. The retail provide of used items is tighter than final yr’s, and tax refunds encourage customers to buy used autos, leading to stronger vendor demand at Manheim within the final week of the month.”
Manheim Car Values Finish Robust
In February, Manheim Market Report (MMR) values noticed some volatility however ended with stronger worth appreciation within the final week of the month, with values rising 0.2% within the final week alone. During the last 4 weeks, the Three-Yr-Outdated Index elevated by 0.5%. Those self same 4 weeks delivered a mean enhance of 0.2% between 2014 and 2019, indicating valuation developments had been stronger than we normally expertise at the moment of yr.
Over the month, day by day MMR Retention, the common distinction in worth relative to the present MMR, averaged 99.0%, which means market costs moved nearer to MMR values this month and had been greater in opposition to January ranges. In comparison with final yr, valuation fashions had been up by 1.1 proportion factors (110 foundation factors) for MMR retention, one-tenth of some extent greater than 2019 ranges for a similar interval. The common day by day gross sales conversion charge rose to 60.4%, a rise of two.1 proportion factors in comparison with final month and slightly greater than normal at the moment of yr. For comparability, the day by day gross sales conversion charge averaged 57.3% in February during the last three years.
Costs on Car Segments Differ
Main market segments noticed blended developments for seasonally adjusted costs yr over yr in February. In comparison with February 2024, the posh phase rose essentially the most, rising by 1.2%, with SUVs additionally performing higher than the trade, rising 0.2% during the last yr.
Compact automobiles declined essentially the most underperforming the trade, falling by 4.8% in opposition to final yr. Mid-size sedans had been down 3.5%, and vehicles fell by simply 0.6%.
In comparison with the earlier month, the truck phase carried out the most effective, transferring greater by 0.2%, whereas luxurious and SUVs had been additionally higher than the trade total, falling by 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively. Faring worse than the trade, compact automobiles confirmed the most important decline, falling 1.6% during the last month, and mid-size sedans had been down 1.1%.
Trying on the market by powertrain in February, electrical autos (EVs) misplaced among the month-to-month positive aspects seen in the previous couple of months. Nonetheless, they fell much less in opposition to January than the trade total. EV values had been down 0.2% in opposition to January 2025, whereas non-EVs declined by 0.5% over the identical time interval. For February 2025, EV values are down 6.2% in opposition to February 2024, whereas non-EVs had been decrease by 0.5% yr over yr, a bit decrease than the general trade common.
Retail Used-Car Gross sales Had been Up in February
Assessing retail automobile gross sales primarily based on noticed modifications in items tracked by vAuto, preliminary estimates of retail used-vehicle gross sales in February had been up 8% in comparison with January and better yr over yr by 8%. A used automobile’s common retail itemizing worth decreased 0.6% during the last 4 weeks.
Utilizing estimates of retail used days’ provide primarily based on vAuto information, an preliminary evaluation signifies February ended at 45 days’ provide, down three days from 48 days on the finish of January and down 5 days from February 2024 at 50 days.
New-vehicle gross sales in February had been down 0.7% from final yr, but quantity elevated 10.6% from a weaker January. The February gross sales tempo, or seasonally adjusted annual charge (SAAR), got here in at 16.0 million, up 0.3 million from final yr’s tempo and better than the weaker 15.5 million degree in January.
Mixed gross sales into massive rental, business, and authorities fleets decreased 12.3% yr over yr in February. Together with an estimate for fleet deliveries into vendor and producer channels, the remaining new retail gross sales had been estimated to be up 3.9% from final yr, resulting in an estimated retail SAAR of 12.8 million, up 4.6% from final yr’s tempo, and in addition greater than January’s estimated 14.0 million degree. Fleet share was estimated to be 18.4%, down from final yr’s 22.0% share.
Rental Danger Value and Mileage Outcomes Larger YOY
The common worth for rental threat items offered at public sale in February elevated 1.9% yr over yr. Moreover, rental threat costs rose by 1.2% in comparison with January. Common mileage for rental threat items in February (at 55,300 miles) rose 15.6% in opposition to final yr’s degree, the best degree for February readings since 2023. For February, the rental unit common mileage was 0.9% decrease in comparison with January 2025.
Measures of Client Confidence Declined in February
- The Convention Board Client Confidence Index declined 6.6% in February, worse than the decline anticipated; however January’s index was revised greater. Shoppers’ views of the current and the long run declined, however views of the long run declined essentially the most. Client confidence was down 6.2% yr over yr. Plans to buy a automobile within the subsequent six months declined modestly to the bottom degree since final February however plans to buy had been barely greater yr over yr.
- The sentiment index from the College of Michigan declined 9% in February to 64.7, decrease than anticipated and marked a bigger decline than the sooner studying at the start of the month. With the ultimate month-to-month lower, the index was down 15.9% yr over yr to the bottom degree since November 2023. The underlying views of present situations and future expectations declined, with present situations falling essentially the most. Expectations for inflation in a single yr elevated to 4.3% from 3.3%, and expectations for inflation in 5 years elevated to three.5% from 3.2%. Shoppers’ views of shopping for situations for autos declined to the bottom degree since August as views of costs deteriorated. However the views of rates of interest had been regular.
- Morning Seek the advice of’s day by day client sentiment index declined 1.7% in February, including to the slight 0.1% decline in January. The index ended the month up 6.3% yr over yr.
- In response to AAA, the nationwide common worth for a gallon of unleaded fuel remained at $3.10, unchanged in February from the tip of January however down 7% yr over yr.
