With 2023 now within the rearview, automakers have set about counting all of their proverbial beans. Whereas full outcomes are nonetheless pending for a lot of distinguished producers, we already know that 2023 was as near a “regular” auto gross sales 12 months as we have seen since we closed the books on 2019. The pandemic and ensuing supply-chain mess at the moment are behind us (for essentially the most half, anyway) and the business’s shift towards electrified choices has been abrupt, to say the least. Each will make direct comparisons of gross sales figures tough within the years to come back, however not less than issues have stabilized in the meanwhile. Here is what we anticipate from the 2023 numbers as they proceed to be launched, together with what we’re watching in 2024.
2023 Highlights
Electrified autos and the The Inflation Discount Act
Electrical and hybrid automobile adoption elevated but once more in 2023, with early estimates pointing to greater than 1,000,000 BEV/HEV/PHEV gross sales in america alone — or near 10% of the overall market. The IRA launched a brand new electrified car tax credit score construction that threw current gross sales narratives for a loop. For the primary time, it closely incentivized clients to purchase EVs constructed by (or with elements from) American producers. We anticipate to see the affect from this within the closing 2023 gross sales figures, and it will all get thrown for a loop once more for 2024, which is topic to a brand new eligibility checklist.
Regular stock and the return of reductions
2023 introduced the idea of new-car stock again in a giant approach. Whereas some automakers had been capable of inventory their tons to a level, 2023 was the primary time we noticed constant stock at sellers nationwide for the reason that pandemic began in 2020. And whereas costs won’t ever actually “come again down” to the place they had been in 2019, transaction costs have largely stabilized and automakers are asserting fewer and smaller will increase to their MSRPs and incentives have returned, each on gasoline autos and EVs.
Stabilization of the high-end and EV markets
With costly credit score comes decreased hypothesis, and whereas which may be excellent news for fanatic consumers who’ve been scrimping and saving for his or her dream retirement vehicles, it is dangerous information for automakers whose sellers had been raking in cash hand over fist on high-end halo fashions. With a secure market comes the return of the large “D” — depreciation. That idea has been largely absent from any dialogue of the premium automobile market in recent times, however with provide growing and demand stagnating, there’s just one path for values to go: down. The speedy devaluation of used luxurious vehicles returned with a vengeance in 2023 and a few early adopters of luxurious EVs realized the onerous approach that there aren’t any ensures within the resale market. That is broadly excellent news for consumers, although, as markups on electrical vehicles ought to largely be a factor of the previous.
GM and Tesla be a part of the full-size electrical pickup phase
Chevrolet formally delivered 461 Silverado EVs in 2023 and Tesla delivered, nicely, a non-zero variety of Cybertrucks. They be a part of the Ford F-150 Lightning, Rivian R1T and arguably the Hummer EV to kind the present crop of full-size electrical pickups. They differ in functionality and supposed mission and arguably signify some of the diversified segments in your complete business.
What to look at in 2024
Vehicles
Yep, America stays truck-crazy. Whereas Ford hasn’t launched its full 2023 gross sales outcomes, it did rush to the mic the moment its accountants confirmed that the F-Collection stays the best-selling nameplate in america with greater than 700,000 bought. However large vans aren’t essentially the large story. The midsize phase has been promoting nicely, and between the petite Ford Maverick, oddball Hyundai Santa Cruz and a few as-yet-unnamed newcomers we anticipate to be taught extra about in 2024, there is a pickup for nearly any purchaser within the market. We anticipate extra large wins for small vans in 2024.
Sedans
It is a quick checklist and it is getting shorter. Whereas issues aren’t fairly as bleak for sedan followers as they’re for individuals who worship on the true altar of automotive ingenuity, it could appear shortsighted to anticipate a turn-around in 2024. Hopefully we can’t lose too many extra beloved nameplates.
Bronco vs. Wrangler
The rivalry is not new, however even footing definitely is. With the provision chain now more-or-less cooperating, we might lastly be capable of take this critically. And who is aware of, possibly we’ll invite the brand new Toyota Land Cruiser to play when the time is true?
Tremendous-SUVs
Whether or not you like them electrified or with a great, old style V8, these costly and insanely fast (in a straight line, anyway) machines captivated American consumers in 2022 and 2023; with the Hummer EV SUV becoming a member of the sphere this 12 months, will demand stay excessive?
Luxurious
The mainstream luxurious phase is all the time a dogfight, however with their diverse approaches to electrification, BMW, Cadillac, Lexus, Mercedes-Benz, Lincoln, Audi, Genesis, Infiniti and Acura are within the midst of reshaping the premium panorama. Who’s doing it proper? We’ll see what the purchasers resolve.
Electrical
2024 is a giant 12 months for electrification throughout a number of segments. We anticipate to see Ram’s new “unlimited-range” RamCharger (do not name it a PHEV) and the primary significant quantity of deliveries for some stragglers on GM’s Ultium EV platform. Tesla can also be within the midst of overhauling its older fashions and who is aware of, possibly we’ll even get some information on the next-gen Roadster? We’ll observe what’s scorching and what’s not within the EV area.
The Autoblog Miata Index
What’s the Autoblog Miata Index? Why, it is solely automotive gross sales metric that actually issues. That is proper, we’re simply counting Miatas. Why? Nicely, we like them, for starters, and as a metric for what number of True Believers™ are on the market shopping for vehicles, it is as arbitrarily good (or dangerous) as anything. We absolutely understand that in any given 12 months, absent manufacturing or provide points, we would doubtless be served simply as nicely by graphing the typical daytime excessive temperature in america. We do not care. M.I.A.T.A.
8,973 Miatas had been bought in 2023. That is a rise of 45.4% over 2022 — and 15.7% over its whole quantity from 2019*. It is official, then. 2023 was a great 12 months.
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*Why 2019? Usually, we would evaluate solely to the prior 12 months, however evaluating on to 2022 gross sales totals paints solely a partial image. 2019 was the final full 12 months of reported gross sales previous to the provision chain chaos that occurred within the wake of Covid, making for a extra dependable level of comparability in lots of cases.
