The Allstate Company (NYSE:ALL) This fall 2022 Earnings Name Transcript February 2, 2023
Operator: Good day and thanks for standing by. Welcome to Allstate’s Fourth Quarter Investor Name. At the moment, all individuals are in a listen-only mode. After the ready remarks, there might be a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, please bear in mind that this name is being recorded. And now I’d prefer to introduce your host for at present’s program, Mr. Mark Nogal, Head of Investor Relations. Please go forward, sir.
Mark Nogal: Thanks, Jonathan. Good morning. Welcome to Allstate’s fourth quarter 2022 earnings convention name. After ready remarks, we’ll have a question-and-answer session. Yesterday following the shut of the market, we issued our information launch and investor complement and posted associated materials on our web site at allstateinvestors.com. Our administration crew is right here to supply perspective on these outcomes. As famous on the primary slide of the presentation, our dialogue will comprise non-GAAP measures for which there are reconciliations within the information launch and investor complement and forward-looking statements about Allstate’s operations. Allstate’s outcomes might differ materially from these statements, so please check with our 10-Okay for 2021 and different public paperwork for data on potential dangers. And now I’ll flip it over to Tom.
Tom Wilson: Nicely, good morning. Thanks for investing your time in Allstate at present. I’ll begin by setting context after which Mario and Jess would supply further perspective on working outcomes and the actions being taken to enhance auto profitability and enhance shareholder worth. So let’s start on Slide 2. In order you recognize, Allstate technique has two elements: enhance private Property-Legal responsibility market share and develop Safety Companies, which is proven within the two ovals on the left. On the correct hand facet, you’ll be able to see our outcomes for the yr. Earnings have been disappointing with a internet lack of $1.4 billion, largely reflecting an underwriting loss on auto insurance coverage and mark-to-market losses on the fairness portfolio. Robust outcomes from householders insurance coverage, safety providers and glued earnings investments weren’t sufficient to offset the losses on auto and business insurance coverage.
An important driver of near-term shareholder worth might be efficiently executing our complete plan to enhance auto profitability. That features broadly elevating auto insurance coverage charges, lowering bills together with non permanent strikes akin to much less promoting and everlasting reductions together with digitizing and outsourcing work and reducing distribution prices. Underwriting restrictions have been applied to scale back new enterprise quantity till profitability is appropriate. Claims working processes are additionally being modified to handle our loss prices. This plan is being applied, however earned premiums from auto insurance coverage charges haven’t elevated sufficient to offset larger loss prices. And whereas the primary precedence is to enhance auto insurance coverage margins, implementation of the transformative progress methods make nice progress in 2022, and we validated that this can drive private Property-Legal responsibility market share progress.
Proactive funding danger and return administration mitigated roughly $2 billion of loss this yr. And whereas the entire return on the portfolio was a unfavorable 4%, that compares very favorably to the efficiency of the S&P 500 and intermediate bond indices. We additionally had one other nice yr at Allstate Safety Plans. Shifting to Slide 3, let’s talk about monetary outcomes. Beginning on the high, revenues of $13.6 billion within the fourth quarter have been 4.9% larger than the prior yr quarter, rising the complete yr whole to $51.4 billion. Property-Legal responsibility premiums earned elevated by 9.5% within the fourth quarter in comparison with the prior yr and eight.5% for the complete yr as a consequence of larger common premiums in auto and householders insurance coverage. Shifting down the desk, an adjusted internet lack of $359 million was incurred within the fourth quarter reflecting an auto insurance coverage underwriting loss, which is impacted by reserve will increase for the present and prior years.
Now let me flip it over to Mario to debate our Property-Legal responsibility outcomes after which Jess will cowl the opposite elements of earnings.
Mario Rizzo: Thanks, Tom. Let’s begin by reviewing underwriting profitability for the Property-Legal responsibility enterprise in whole on Slide 4. The general message is that the underwriting loss was a results of auto insurance coverage working at a mixed ratio above our targets, however householders insurance coverage continued to be a powerful supply of revenue. On the left chart, the recorded mixed ratio of 109.1 within the fourth quarter was primarily pushed by larger auto loss prices, unfavorable reserve growth and better catastrophes. This led to a full yr recorded mixed ratio of 106.6, which was 10.7 factors larger than the prior yr. The desk on the correct reveals the mixed ratio and underwriting earnings by line of enterprise for the quarter and the yr.
Auto insurance coverage had a mixed ratio of 112.6 within the quarter and 110.1 for the yr, considerably worse than our targets given quickly rising loss prices all year long. This outcome was an underwriting lack of $974 million within the quarter and over $3 billion for the yr. Therefore, you’ll be able to see why Tom has stated executing our auto revenue enchancment plan is the primary precedence going ahead. Owners insurance coverage, however, had glorious outcomes with the mixed with mixed ratios within the low 90s, which generated $681 million of underwriting earnings for the yr. This displays industry-leading underwriting and danger administration on this line of enterprise. Industrial insurance coverage was negatively impacted by the identical auto insurance coverage price pressures, together with insufficient pricing for the protection offered to the massive transportation community firms.
The outcome was an underwriting loss for the yr of $464 million. This led to the choice mentioned final quarter to not present insurance coverage to transportation community firms until telematics-based pricing is applied and to exit 5 states within the Allstate conventional business enterprise. These actions are anticipated to scale back business enterprise premiums by over 50% in 2023. Now let’s transfer to Slide 5 and talk about auto margin in additional element. As you’ll be able to see from the chart on the left, which reveals the auto insurance coverage mixed ratio and underlying mixed ratio from 2017 by the present yr, we now have an extended historical past of sustained profitability in auto insurance coverage as a consequence of pricing sophistication, underwriting and claims experience and expense administration.
In 2020, the mixed ratio dropped to 86 although we offered clients with over $1 billion of shelter-in-place funds. This was as a consequence of traditionally low accident frequency within the early phases of the pandemic. In 2021, frequency elevated as mileage pushed elevated, nevertheless it didn’t attain pre-pandemic ranges. Claims severity, nonetheless, elevated above historic ranges due to extra extreme rising prices to settle claims with third events, who’re injured in accidents with our clients. As well as, used automotive costs have been rising at unprecedented ranges, finally peaking in December, reflecting an approximate 50% enhance over the prior yr. We had a reported mixed ratio of 95 for the yr regardless of all these pressures. This yr, the mixed ratio elevated 14.7 factors to 110.1, the drivers of that are proven within the right-hand chart.
The pink bars mirror the affect of accelerating loss prices, together with a 3.6 level affect from prior yr reserve additions and a 16.7 level affect from present yr underlying losses, excluding catastrophes, which embrace will increase in each frequency and extra considerably, severity in comparison with final yr. As we mentioned, the core element of the revenue enchancment plan is to lift auto insurance coverage charges and substantial progress was made on this entrance beginning within the fourth quarter of 2021 and all through final yr. In 2022, the affect of upper common earned premium drove a profit of three.6 factors, which is proven in inexperienced. As I’ll cowl in a minute, there may be far more profit to be realized in earned premiums based mostly on what was applied in 2022.
One other a part of the revenue enchancment plan is to scale back bills and this contributed a good 2 level profit this yr. Shifting to Slide 6. Let’s talk about prior yr reserve re-estimates earlier than we glance ahead. Our loss estimates and reserve liabilities use constant practices, a number of analytical strategies and two exterior actuarial opinions to make sure reserve adequacy. These processes led us to extend the reserve legal responsibility for prior years all through 2022 by quantities which are bigger than latest years. Property-Legal responsibility prior yr reserve strengthening, excluding catastrophes totaled $1.7 billion or 3.9 factors on the mixed ratio for the complete yr 2022. The pie chart on the left breaks down the affect by line and protection with $1.1 billion pushed by Allstate Model private auto largely associated to bodily damage claims.
As well as $295 million was associated to Allstate Model business insurance coverage, additionally largely associated to auto. The desk on the correct breaks down the Allstate Model auto prior yr reserve strengthening of $1.1 billion in 2022 by report yr. Let me orient you to the desk. Reserve will increase are proven by protection in whole after which for the report right here to which they apply. The reserve legal responsibility for bodily injury coverages was elevated by $211 million, which was completely attributable to 2021. This primarily associated to hostile growth and elongated restore time frames, which have been primarily addressed within the first and second quarter. Harm reserves have been the biggest element at $676 million, which was unfold throughout many report years. Incurred however not reported was elevated by $226 million as late reported declare counts have exceeded prior estimates.
This reserve stability was elevated in every of the primary three quarters of 2022, however a bigger quantity was recorded within the fourth quarter. In whole for all coverages about 63% of the will increase have been for 2021 and 2020. On the backside of the desk, the reported mixed ratio for the calendar yr is proven and in comparison with the reserve modifications. For instance in 2021, the reported mixed ratios for Allstate Model auto insurance coverage was 95. The reserve additions point out that prices have been 2.1 factors above this reported quantity. Estimating reserve legal responsibility makes use of a number of reserving strategies, however is at all times topic to strengthening or releasing reserves over time. This variability will increase with modifications within the underlying information, akin to declare counts, settlement instances, or price will increase and as has been the case over the previous three years.
Whereas reserves might change going ahead, based mostly on the 2022 declare statistics and information, reserves are appropriately established at year-end 2022. Shifting to Slide 7. Let’s present some readability on what the auto insurance coverage mixed ratio development was by quarter in 2022. As you’ll be able to see on the left-hand chart, the recorded mixed ratio peaked within the third quarter at 117.4, largely reflecting prior yr reserve modifications and disaster losses proven in gentle blue. The darkish blue bars are the underlying mixed ratio, as reported, which elevated every quarter. Included on this darkish blue bar is the affect of accelerating declare severities throughout the yr. We replace the forecast on declare severities because the yr progresses. As 2022 developed, loss price tendencies resulted in will increase to present report yr final severity expectations.
As proven within the name out on the left chart, 2022 incurred severities for collision, property injury and bodily damage was 17%, 21% and 14%, respectively, above the complete report yr 2021 degree. This estimate, nonetheless, elevated all year long. The affect of accelerating present report yr on incurred severities because the yr progressed influences the quarter underlying mixed ratio development. This affect from rising full yr severities from claims occurring in prior quarters is mirrored within the monetary outcomes of the interval the place severities have been elevated. For instance, the fourth quarter of 2022 displays the affect of upper severity expectations within the auto bodily injury protection, not only for claims reported in This fall but in addition for claims that have been reported all through the prior three quarters as effectively.
The chart on the correct adjusts the quarterly underlying mixed ratio to mirror full yr common severity ranges, which removes the affect of intra-year severity modifications. As you’ll be able to see, after adjusting for the timing of severity will increase within the present yr, the quarterly underlying mixed ratio development was basically flat all through 2022 and near the complete yr degree of 103.6. Slide 8 outlines our complete strategy to revive auto margins. There are 4 areas of focus: elevating charges; a continued give attention to lowering bills; implementing stricter underwriting necessities; and modifying declare practices to handle loss prices. Beginning with charges, for the reason that starting of this yr, we’ve applied price will increase of 16.9% within the Allstate Model, together with 6.1% within the fourth quarter, which considerably elevated written premium.
We count on to proceed to pursue important price will increase into 2023 to enhance auto insurance coverage margins to focus on ranges. We’re additionally lowering working bills as a part of transformative progress and have briefly lowered promoting spend to handle new enterprise quantity. We’re implementing extra restrictive underwriting actions on new enterprise in places or danger segments the place we can’t obtain enough costs for the chance. Elevated restrictions have been applied in 37 states together with California, New York and New Jersey, which account for a big portion of underwriting losses. Declare practices have been modified to cope with the upper loss price setting. For instance, we now have strategic partnerships with half suppliers and restore services to mitigate the price of restore and use predictive modeling to optimize restore versus whole loss selections and probability of damage and lawyer illustration.
Shifting to Slide 9, let’s talk about a key element of our multifaceted plan elevating auto insurance coverage costs. Progress in common premium per coverage is accelerating as a consequence of applied price will increase, however the affect to common earned premium per coverage is on a lag because of the six-month coverage time period. The chart on the left depicts the year-over-year progress in auto common gross written premium in orange, reaching 14.4% within the fourth quarter of 2022. The auto common earned premium progress of 9.7% within the fourth quarter, represented in blue, continues to extend, however on a lag because of the six-month coverage time period. The chart on the correct is an estimation of when the speed enhance is applied might be earned into premiums. After all, precise earned premium progress might be influenced by modifications within the variety of insurance policies in drive and absolute ranges of recent enterprise and retention.
This illustrative instance assumes 85% of the annualized written premium might be earned since clients modify coverage phrases akin to deductibles or limits the place they might not renew. Beginning on the left, during the last 15 months, we’ve applied Allstate model auto price will increase of 19.8% for an estimated annualized written premium affect of roughly $4.8 billion. Utilizing the historic 85% effectiveness assumption nets a complete of $4.1 billion in anticipated earned premium, represented by the second blue bar. Roughly $1.2 billion has been earned by the fourth quarter. Of the remaining $2.9 billion of premium but to be earned, roughly $2.6 billion might be earned in 2023 and $300 million in 2024 as proven in inexperienced. As I discussed earlier, we count on to implement further price will increase in 2023, which might be additive to the figures proven on this chart.
Slide 10 illustrates the drivers that may decide the timing of improved auto profitability. The chart on this web page is an illustrative view we’ve proven up to now on our path to focus on profitability together with the magnitude of actions already taken and required prospectively. Beginning on the left, the primary blue bar reveals the year-end 2022 auto insurance coverage reported mixed ratio 110.1. To begin with the normalized base, we eliminated the affect of prior yr reserve will increase and normalized the disaster loss ratio for our five-year historic common. This improves the mixed ratio by roughly 4.5 factors. The second inexperienced bar displays the estimated affect of price actions already applied when absolutely earned into premium, which we mentioned on the prior slide.
The affect on the mixed ratio is roughly 10.5 factors when combining the Allstate model and the Nationwide Common model actions. These two changes would enhance the mixed ratio to focus on ranges. Now after all, we all know that loss prices will enhance, whether or not from severity or accident frequency, which might enhance the mixed ratio. So potential price will increase and different margin enchancment actions should meet or exceed loss price will increase to realize historic returns. We proceed to handle the auto insurance coverage enterprise with the expectation to realize an auto insurance coverage mixed ratio goal within the mid-90s. Shifting to Slide 11, the desk reveals Allstate model auto leads to three main states: California, New York and New Jersey mixed contributed roughly 1 / 4 of the Allstate model auto written premiums in 2022 however accounted for roughly 45% of the underwriting loss.
Whereas charges have been elevated in 2022 by 7% to 10%, this isn’t sufficient to realize goal margins. In consequence, we now have extra work to do, a few of which is listed on the right-hand facet. The best-hand facet of the slide is an inventory of actions we’re taking in every of those states to enhance margins. In California, we filed for an extra 6.9% price enhance in January after getting approval for an preliminary 6.9% price enhance and are considerably rising down fee necessities. In New York, whereas a number of price filings have been requested, solely partial approval of the will increase requires us to make further price filings in early 2023, elevated down fee necessities, allowable prior incidents and channel restrictions means fewer decisions for customers till an enough price is accredited.
In New Jersey, further price filings can even be made and comparable underwriting actions might be applied as these taken in New York. Shifting to Slide 12. Let’s take a look at a continued good efficiency story in householders insurance coverage. As you recognize a good portion of our clients bundle house and auto insurance coverage, which improves retention and the general economics of each product traces. Now we have a differentiated householders product, underwriting, reinsurance and claims ecosystem that’s distinctive within the {industry}. Internet written premium has elevated considerably all through 2021 and into 2022, rising 9.3% from the prior yr quarter and 12% for the complete yr, predominantly pushed by larger common gross written premium per coverage and a 1.4% enhance in insurance policies in drive.
Nationwide normal written premiums additionally elevated as we improved underwriting margins nearer to focused ranges. The fourth quarter mixed ratio for householders of 92.6 elevated by 5.5 factors in comparison with the prior yr quarter, whereas full yr mixed ratio of 93.8 and declined by 3 factors in comparison with 2021. For the yr, this line generated $681 million of underwriting earnings. The rise within the fourth quarter is proven on the correct facet. The elevated mixed ratio was pushed by elevated disaster losses, primarily as a consequence of winter storm Elliot. Owners insurance coverage was additionally impacted by the upper loss price setting as we proceed to expertise larger severities as a consequence of rising labor and materials prices. To handle the inflationary setting, our merchandise have refined pricing options that reply to modifications in house alternative values.
And now I’ll flip it over to Jess to debate the rest of our outcomes.
Jess Merten: All proper. Thanks, Mario. Nicely, property legal responsibility is a core enterprise for us. There are different necessary drivers of monetary efficiency to debate, beginning with funding earnings on Slide 13. As proven within the desk on the backside left, the entire return of our portfolio is 2.5% within the fourth quarter and unfavorable 4% for the yr. These returns for our broadly diversified portfolio examine favorably to the complete yr efficiency for the S&P 500 of unfavorable 18%, and to the Bloomberg Intermediate Bond Index return of unfavorable 9%. Internet funding earnings proven within the chart on the left totaled $557 million within the quarter, which is $290 million under fourth quarter final yr. Market-based earnings of $464 million, which is proven in blue, was $101 million above the prior yr quarter.
That is the third consecutive quarter of enhance as we profit from reinvestment at larger market yields. Efficiency-based earnings of $147 million proven in black was $369 million under a powerful prior yr quarter. Revenue this quarter included in unfavorable contribution from valuation of personal fairness fund investments that was greater than offset by constructive contributions from direct investments together with constructive returns for infrastructure in actual property. The chart on the correct reveals the fastened earnings yield is rising and was 3.2% at quarter finish, however remains to be under the present intermediate company bond yield at 5.3%. Additionally proven is that length elevated modestly to three.4 within the fourth quarter, primarily by eradicating roughly half of our length shortening rate of interest derivatives.
The migration of the portfolio to larger yield and the corresponding enhance in earnings will occur over time as we reinvest portfolio money flows into larger rates of interest. With the portfolio in unrealized loss positions accelerating this shift by promoting bonds to generate capital losses however might be pursued if it optimizes enterprise danger and return. Now let’s flip to Slide 14 and speak extra about how enterprise danger and return administration impacts funding allocations and outcomes. Proactive funding administration is extremely built-in with danger adjusted return alternatives throughout the enterprise. We mentioned this intimately on our September 1 Particular Subject name on investments. In 2021, we determined to decrease total danger ranges given the declines in auto insurance coverage profitability.
We additionally anticipated that sustained inflation would result in larger rates of interest. In consequence, the financial capital deployed to investments was lowered. This led to a shortening of the bond portfolio by the sale of lengthy company and municipal bonds and using derivatives. Whereas hostile market circumstances negatively impacted our portfolio, these actions mitigated losses by roughly $2 billion. In 2022, giving continued auto insurance coverage losses, we determined to decrease the potential for funding losses because the U.S. economic system went into recession. On the identical time, rates of interest have been rising, providing a greater danger adjusted return from fastened earnings. Consequently, holdings and under funding grade bonds have been lower nearly in half, and public fairness holdings have been lowered by 40%.
Late within the yr, rates of interest had elevated within the length of the bond portfolio was prolonged as proven on the earlier slide. About half the length shortening by-product place was eliminated within the fourth quarter, on the identical time, this lowered the quantity of financial capital deployed to investments. These actions optimize enterprise danger and return and supply flexibility to benefit from funding alternatives as financial circumstances evolve. The Safety Companies companies additionally create shareholder worth, as proven on Slide 15. Revenues, excluding the affect of internet features and losses on investments and derivatives, elevated 6.1% to $643 million within the quarter and eight.7% to $2.5 billion for the complete yr 2022. The rise in income for the fourth quarter and full yr was primarily pushed by Allstate Safety Plans progress of 16.9% and 15.7% respectively.
As you’ll be able to see from the desk on the correct, Allstate Safety Plans continues to quickly develop with written premium of $1.9 billion for the yr. Allstate Safety Plans enlargement in 2022 is primarily pushed by our funding in equipment and furnishings product coverages. We proceed to imagine there’s a major progress alternative in these areas and in our continued enlargement of European client electronics and different worldwide progress. Given, the longer coverage time period in comparison with auto and house owner’s insurance coverage merchandise, the unearned premium stability continues to considerably develop as effectively, reaching $2.6 billion on the finish of the yr. For the section, adjusted internet earnings of $38 million within the quarter, elevated $9 million in comparison with the prior yr as a consequence of a one-time internet tax profit in Allstate Safety Plans.
Full yr adjusted internet earnings of $169 million, decreased $10 million in comparison with the prior yr, primarily because of the decrease income in Arity on account of decreased insurer consumer promoting. We’ll proceed to spend money on rising these companies as they supply a gorgeous alternative to satisfy clients’ wants and create financial worth for our shareholders. Shifting on to Slide 16, Allstate Well being and Advantages is rising a gorgeous set of companies that protects greater than 4 million coverage holders. The acquisition of Nationwide Common in 2021 added each group and particular person merchandise to our portfolio as you’ll be able to see on the left. Revenues of $579 million within the fourth quarter of 2022, excluding the affect of internet features and losses on investments and derivatives, decreased 1.5% to the prior yr quarter as a discount in particular person well being was partially offset by a rise in group well being and different income.
Adjusted internet earnings of $50 million, elevated $2 million in comparison with the prior yr quarter, leading to a full yr 2022 earnings of $222 million. The total yr 2022 outcome was $14 million above prior yr and displays will increase in group well being revenues partially offset by larger working prices and bills on group well being contract advantages. Let’s shut by highlighting Allstate’s robust monetary situation and proactive strategy to capital administration, which you’ll see on Slide 17. We ended the yr with $4 billion in holding firm belongings, which represents a rise of $700 million in comparison with yr finish 2021. We imagine holding firm belongings and capital sources accessible from statutory working firms present monetary flexibility as we proceed to implement revenue confirmed actions, spend money on Transformative Progress and return capital to shareholders.
As you’ll be able to see, our adjusted internet loss in 2022 resulted in a unfavorable adjusted internet earnings return on fairness. Executing our complete plan in reaching goal mixed ratios for auto and householders insurance coverage will deliver adjusted internet earnings returns and fairness again to our long-term goal vary of 14% to 17%. In 2022, we returned $3.4 billion to shareholders by $2.5 billion in share repurchases and $926 million in frequent shareholder dividends. This resulted in frequent shares excellent being lowered by 6.1%, reflecting the repurchase of 19.7 million shares in 2022. With that as context, let’s open the road on your questions.
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Q&A Session
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Operator: Actually. And our first query comes from the road of Paul Newsome from Piper Sandler. Your query, please.
Paul Newsome: Good morning. I wished to ask about claims administration course of that over the course of the final couple of years, I consider Allstate is having a superior claims administration in auto and residential and that’s being sort of one of many core benefits. However you’ve additionally been implementing plenty of price cuts and shedding people during the last couple years. So how are you form of balancing that? And are there some core metrics that we are able to see as outsiders that counsel that benefit relative to your friends nonetheless exists?
Tom Wilson: Thanks, Paul. Good morning. Let me make a number of overview feedback after which Mario can soar in. You’re appropriate that one in all our aggressive benefits actually declare settling what are thousands and thousands of claims a yr. And we actually take a look at like a it’s a techniques strategy. It’s not the results of including one individual course of or vendor association. However like for instance, should you take a look at auto insurance coverage, we now have this community of auto physique restore services allows us to each supply top quality prices, top quality repairs, good prices and in well timed stuff. So slicing down issues like automotive, rental use and stuff like that. On the identical time, we now have in depth use of analytics, whether or not that’s the worth of a person automotive in an area market with particular choices to settlements of sophisticated multi-year bodily damage claims or fraud detection.
Half sourcing and shopping for that Mario talked about allows us to each management the worth of these elements by shopping for them in bulk. But in addition deciding which half you employ. You employ an OE half or an aftermarket half, what’s accessible within the native market. So the rationale I’m going by that’s it’s a extremely sophisticated system that works very well. We’ve acquired good worker coaching, acquired good expertise, we now have good high quality management processes. And we do have metrics which you can take a look at to find out how we’re doing versus the skin. There’s first name reporting and there’s another exterior reporting which reveals, for instance, that we now have. We purchase we pay much less per declare for elements and labor than different individuals. So a few of that data like first name you guys might have entry to others we get from different sources.
But it surely what it tells us is that we’re good. Now, anytime you’re good, the one motive the one means you keep good is you retain altering and getting higher and updating processes. And in order we’ve handled these dramatic swings and frequency and prices, we proceed to implement modifications to enhance the effectiveness and effectivity and Mario can speak about these. Are we excellent? No. Are we always reassessing all the things we do to verify we’re getting the correct worth for elements and we’re settling on the proper worth for patrons after all. Will we imagine it’s nonetheless a continued aggressive benefit for Allstate? Sure. So Mario, would you wish to speak about a number of the belongings you labored on final yr and what you’ve wanting ahead this yr?