March US auto gross sales, on account of be reported subsequent week, will present sturdy progress over February’s tempo and a major improve over final 12 months’s pandemic hit numbers. The seasonally adjusted annual fee (SAAR) of gross sales this month is forecast by Cox Automotive to hit 16.5m, up from February’s 15.7m tempo and effectively above March 2020’s dismal 11.4m degree.
Gross sales quantity is forecast to extend practically 50% over final March and attain 1.48m items. Whereas gross sales within the first quarter have been wholesome, they continue to be under pre-pandemic ranges. Complete gross sales in Q1 2021, forecast at 3.77m items, might be up 8.7% versus Q1 2020 however down 4.9% from Q1 2019 when 3.97m gross sales have been reported.
The gross sales restoration has been uneven since September. The SAAR has bounced round between the upper-15 to mid-16m ranges over the previous six months. A return to the upper finish is predicted in March. The gross sales tempo ought to enhance this month after being hampered by winter storms that disrupted a lot of the nation in February. With the deep freeze impacting markets as far south as Houston and disrupting tens of millions of lives and companies for days, many gross sales have been possible delayed into early March. Additionally, the distribution of stimulus cheques is effectively below manner, and Cox mentioned it had already observed upward motion in each day gross sales monitoring numbers because of this.
“Stock ranges are tight proper now, although, and this might hinder the market in coming months,” mentioned Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist, Cox Automotive. “Provide chain disruptions that proceed to plague the trade are including to the quick provide state of affairs. Though lean inventories haven’t had a lot affect on consumers within the first quarter, that may possible change as we transfer into Q2. The manufacturing disruptions taking place now will flip into even decrease stock within the months forward.”
In March, new gentle automobile gross sales are forecast to extend by 490,000 items, or practically 50%, in comparison with March 2020. When in comparison with final month, gross sales are anticipated to rise practically 300,000 items, or 25.4%.
The SAAR in March 2021 is estimated to be 16.5m, above final 12 months’s 11.4m degree and a rise from final month’s 15.7m tempo. There are 26 promoting days this month, another than final 12 months and two greater than February, so extra time can even assist raise gross sales.
Yr-over-year comparisons will change into much less related within the months forward as giant year-over-year will increase are reported. In comparison with March 2019, gross sales quantity this month is forecast to be down by greater than 8%. March 2019 had one extra promoting day than March 2021.
First quarter gross sales are forecast to be up 8.7% in comparison with Q1 2020 however down 4.9% versus Q1 2019.
