HYDROGEN has made its first look on the nationwide automobile gross sales record as Hyundai final month road-registered the nation’s first fuel-cell automobile.
It’s a small step within the different gasoline journey precipitated by the avalanche of laws accompanying a transfer away from fossil-fuels for transport.
The 20 Nexo hydrogen fuel-cell automobiles now sporting NSW license plates could also be as vital because the 112 electrical automobiles registered in 2010 by fleet operators as a precursor to the now-accepted record of EVs available on the market, as proven by VFacts gross sales knowledge.
EVs are actually coming and prone to be an unstoppable power that might maybe equate to the SUV invasion.
However it’s taking place quietly, similar to the best way LPG automobiles disappeared from the VFacts record – a sole entry was made in 2017 earlier than exiting, presumably endlessly – to get replaced by PHEVs (plug-in hybrid electrical automobiles).
There are notable developments in our selection of automobiles primarily based on gasoline or energy supply. Diesel, for instance, has slid after plateauing from 2012 by way of to 2016 however is now down at ranges beforehand seen round 2009.
The identical slide is seen with petrol, predominantly as consumers transfer away from conventional sedan automobiles and likewise due to the downward automobile gross sales market over the previous three years. Petrol-vehicle gross sales at the moment are under 2009.
No shock that a lot of the eye has been taken up by hybrids. Hybrid gross sales had been round 4200 in 2009 and flattened from 2012 (with 13,919 gross sales) by way of to 2018 (14,328 gross sales).
From then, new merchandise and an increasing fleet market that included taxis that pushed closely for Toyota Camry Hybrids, rocketed 2019 gross sales to 31,191 models after which nearly doubling to 60,419 in 2020.
That hybrid leap was accentuated by automobiles led by the Toyota RAV4, but additionally together with eight different fashions within the Toyota portfolio, together with the Hyundai Ioniq, varied Lexus fashions, and Subaru Forester and XV.
Toyota really shocked the market and greater than introduced the hybrid idea into most Australian lounge rooms with the RAV4 turning into Australia’s hottest automobile in August final yr, promoting 4405 models that month.
It was not solely a win for hybrids nevertheless it was the primary time an SUV had change into the nation’s hottest automobile.
For Toyota, the 4405 RAV4 hybrid gross sales represented a report 91.3 per cent of complete RAV4 gross sales in August 2020, in opposition to 420 petrol variations.
The chances are probably with EVs and maybe the timeline might be faster, if not for the uptake of consumers however due to the potential availability of latest EV fashions in Australia.
In 2015, EVs accounted for less than 0.12 per cent of the passenger automobile and SUV gross sales in Australia (observe: knowledge doesn’t embody Tesla that doesn’t share gross sales figures, so the precise quantity and proportion might be larger).
In 2020, regardless of a market dimension that had fallen 150,000 models, EVs picked their proportion as much as 0.26 per cent. That’s not huge by any stretch – that means 1755 gross sales – nevertheless it has doubled its market in 5 years.
Hybrids, however, have scored higher. They lifted their market share from 1.3 per cent of the automobile and SUV sectors in 2015, to eight.9 per cent in 2020.
The acceptance of alternate options has additionally lifted the shares of PHEVs, with their first look as a separate class in 2019 with 1426 gross sales, predominantly Mitsubishi Outlanders.
By 2020, there have been different PHEVs together with the Hyundai Ioniq, Ford Escape, Mini Countryman, Mercedes A250e, C300e, E300e and GLC300e; Volvo XC40 Recharge, XC60 and XC90; BMW 330e, 530e, 745e, X5 45e; Vary Rover Sport P400e; and the Porsche Cayenne and Panamera.
In the meantime, prior to now decade petrol-fuelled automobiles and SUVs fell from 85.6 per cent of the market to 75.6 per cent (2009-2020). Regardless of issues about diesel gasoline, diesel really lifted their proportion due to the persevering with rise of SUV gross sales. Diesel has a 14.9 per cent share of this sector in 2020, up from 12.9 per cent in 2009.
Now it may very well be hydrogen’s flip. Hyundai registered 20 Nexo fuel-cell SUVs in February however these are for a non-public fleet concerned within the ACT authorities’s Hornsdale wind farm venture.
No extra Nexos are anticipated till late this yr or early 2022, in keeping with the constructing of infrastructure to gasoline the automobiles. There may be one web site in NSW and extra are deliberate for Melbourne and Brisbane, then expanded to areas in NSW, South Australia, Western Australia and Tasmania.
It’s only the start.
